PREDYCT: Predator REsponses to seasonal krill DYnamiC and krill fishing activiTies

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Improving knowledge and protection of the unique Antarctic life: from land to ocean and into the deep seaAnthropogenic signatures in Antarctica: the race against pollution and other pressures

Scientific Background and Relevance

The southwestern Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean is a major ecological hotspot, supporting exceptionally high densities of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and krill-dependent predators, including penguins, seals, and whales (Warwick-Evans et al. 2022). These species form the foundation of a krill-centred food web of global ecological importance (Kawaguchi et al. 2024). However, this region is also one of the fastest-warming areas on Earth, where climate-driven environmental changes coincide with rapid expansion of krill fisheries and increasing tourism (Tin et al. 2024, Tejedo et al. 2022, Kawaguchi et al. 2024, Meyer et al. 2025).

The krill fishery is managed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) under Article 2 of the Convention of the Antarctic Treaty System, which promotes conservation and rational use through an ecosystem-based approach. The CCAMLR Scientific Committee has identified the evaluation of krill fishery impacts on key predators as a high-priority research topic, particularly in Subareas 48.1 and 48.2 (Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea), where fishing pressure is greatest, and catches have reached new records. These priorities align with the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) objectives to safeguard and sustainably manage the krill-centred ecosystem and the InSync themes 4 (Improving knowledge and protection of the unique Antarctic life: from land to ocean and into the deep sea) and 5 (Anthropogenic signatures in Antarctica: the race against pollution and other pressures).

Objectives

This working group aims to deliver a comprehensive, coordinated assessment of the effects of krill fisheries on krill-dependent predators by integrating biological, ecological, and fisheries data across spatial and temporal scales, at the Antarctic Peninsula region, not previously achieved.

Specific objectives that we will implement in the field season 2026/2027, 2027/2028 and 2028/2029 are to:

  1. Quantify the spatiotemporal overlap between krill fisheries and krill predators and assess predators’ functional responses to fishery-induced changes in krill availability.
  2. Investigate behavioural interactions between fisheries and predators, with a focus on foraging behaviour, movement, and energetic costs.
  3. Establish coordinated, standardised, multi-platform monitoring protocols that integrate predator tagging, krill surveys, and fisheries observations.
  4. Promote collaboration among scientists within and beyond CCAMLR, encouraging inclusivity across career stages, genders, and countries.

This will be addressed through the following research questions:

Topic 1 – Spatiotemporal Overlap and Functional Responses:

i. To what extent do fishing activities and predator foraging overlap horizontally and vertically, and do these overlaps elicit functional responses?

ii. What are the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of krill flux at local and subarea scales, and how do advection-driven processes influence stock replenishment?

Topic 2 – Behavioural Interactions:

i. Does nearby fishing alter predator foraging behaviour?ii. Do local or remote fishing operations modify predator movements or spatial distributions?

ii. Do local or remote fishing operations modify predator movements or spatial distributions?

Methods and Approach

Approach

A synchronised, interdisciplinary framework will integrate biological, oceanographic, and fisheries data collected through coordinated field campaigns and autonomous platforms. During the InSync period, predator-tagging campaigns and krill surveys will be aligned across research and commercial vessels, gliders, and biologging devices, enabling cross-scale comparisons of predator behaviour, krill availability, and fishing effort. Collaboration among diverse research institutions and initiatives, such as CCAMLR, SCAR and ARK (Association of Responsible Krill harvesting companies), and other InSync working groups, such as ECOSENT, will enable data integration at an unprecedented scale in the Southern Ocean, with emphasis on CCAMLR fishing areas 48.1 and 48.2.

Sampling methods and platforms include:

 

Research focus Method Platform(s)
Krill behaviour Active acoustics Research vessels, fishing vessels, moorings, gliders
Krill biomass distribution Active acoustics Research vessels, gliders
Net samples Research vessels
Predator distribution Sighting data Research vessels, fishing vessels, cruise vessels
Biologging Tagging campaigns
Passive acoustics Moorings
Active acoustics Fishing vessels
Predator foraging behaviour Biologging (Axy-Treks) Tagging campaigns
Active acoustics Fishing vessels
Fishing effort Catch effort data CCAMLR Secretariat
Active acoustics Fishing vessels
Fishing vessel movement AIS data CCAMLR Secretariat
Advection ADCP Research vessels, moorings

Expected Outcomes and Deliverables

The project will:

  • Deliver the first integrated, ecosystem-scale assessment of krill fishery impacts on krill-dependent predators in the CCAMLR krill fishing region 48.1 and 48.2.
  • Provide evidence-based insights to inform adaptive management within CCAMLR.
  • Support SCAR and Antarctic Treaty objectives by promoting ecosystem resilience and sustainable use.
  • Enhance international scientific cooperation and capacity building across genders, disciplines, career stages, and consortia (SCAR, CCAMLR, NGOs etc.).

Ultimately, the research will generate critical empirical knowledge to guide the conservation and management of the krill-centred Southern Ocean ecosystem amid rapid environmental and anthropogenic change.

Timeline / Implementation Plan
Timeframe Task
April - August 2026: online meetings and workshop at the SCAR OSC to:

a) coordinate field work on the different data collection platforms,
b) define field methods and data sharing, storage, analysis and use,
c) apply for funding (for devices, training workshops, data analysis),
d) streamline existing scripts and prepare manuals and training courses for the planned field work activities.
November 2026 to February 2029: Data collection
  • Land-based krill predator campaigns, which are already confirmed :
    Data collection in the Antarctic Peninsula region (CCAMLR area 48.1): Land-based penguin biologging complementing regional krill surveys and fishing activity data will be conducted from November 2026 to February 2027. These activities will take place at penguin colonies at Ardley Island, Stranger Point, Vapour Cove (South Shetland Islands), Hope Bay as well as at Cierva Cove. Countries involved: Uruguay, Argentina, USA, GermanyData collection at the South Orkneys (CCAMLR area 48.2): Combined program of biologging and UAV surveying of penguin colonies in proximity to the key fishing grounds will be conducted alongside concurrent krill acoustic surveys in areas exploited by penguins, in the field seasons 2026/27 and 2027/28. Countries involved: Norway, South Africa, Germany
  • Biological krill data collections, which are already confirmed:
    • Shipbased
      – CCAMLR area 48.1: January to April 2027 and 2028. Countries /Parties involved: Germany, Peru, Fishery (ARK: Association of Responsible Krill Harvesting Companies).
      – CCAMLR area 48.1 (and to a lesser extent 48.2 &.3): January to April 2027 (pre-confirmation). Countries /Parties involved: Australia, US, Germany, UK, Argentina, Norway, Uruguay, South Africa (Antarctic tourist vessel-based surveys)
      – CCAMLR area 48.2: January to March 2027 and 2028. Countries /Parties involved: Norway, Fishery (ARK)
    • Moored systems
      CCAMLR area 48.1: Data collection in 2027 and 2028. Countries /Parties involved: USA, Germany
March 2029-2030

Data compilation and analysis, collaborative writing of papers, to be submitted to CCAMLR and SCAR meetings and peer-reviewed journals.

Convenors and Contact Points

Bettina Meyer

Contact
Dr. Bettina Meyer, is heading the working group Ecophysiology of pelagic key species with emphasis on Antarctic Krill and Salps in the Southern Ocean at the Alfred Wegener Institute and is an Associate Professor at the University of Oldenburg, Germany. She serves as the scientific representative of the German delegation in CCAMLR and is co-chair of the SCAR Krill Expert Group (SKEG). Her areas of expertise are Krill biology, physiology and behaviour, with a special interest in using scientific data to improve krill fishery management. Her research is geographically focused on the Antarctic Peninsula region.

Andrew Lowther

Contact
Dr. Andrew Lowther (Norwegian Polar Institute) is a Senior Research Scientist who has participated in CCAMLR scientific and policy meetings since 2013, translating science into a format usable by policy makers. Currently, he is leading efforts to start marine spatial planning in a key Antarctic krill fishery hotspot (South Orkney Islands), having previously convened workshops focused on pelagic marine
spatial planning throughout the subantarctic region for CCAMLR. He is an expert on predator spatial ecology, predator-prey functional relationships and has developed research and monitoring programs on cetaceans, seals and penguins in the context of conservation and fisheries management throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea. He will manage three concurrent field-based research programs throughout the Antarctica Insync initiative, examining the functional relationships between pygoscelid penguins and krill in both fished and unfished areas.

Alvaro Soutullo

Contact
Dr. Álvaro Soutullo (UdelaR, Uruguay). Secretary-General of the Uruguayan Antarctic Institute and Associate Professor at the University of the Republic (Uruguay). He serves as national representative to COMNAP and is a member of the steering committee of AntICON. His work focuses on the interface between science and policy, with an emphasis on the design of conservation measures for marine ecosystems, monitoring, and spatial planning. His areas of expertise are applied ecology and behavioral ecology, with more recent work focused on the study of marine predators as environmental sentinels. Geographically, his research is centered on the northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Scotia Sea.

Integration and Partnerships

We link our activities with existing initiatives (e.g. CCAMLR, SCAR EGs (e.g. BAMM), InSync WG ECOSENT and NGO Oceanites)

References
  • Kawaguchi, S., Atkinson, A., Bahlburg, D., Bernard, K. S., Cavan, E. L., Cox, M. J., Hill, S. L., Meyer, B., & Veytia, D. (2024). Climate change impacts on Antarctic krill behaviour and population dynamics. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 5(1), 43–58. [Link]
  • Meyer, B., Arata, J. A., Atkinson, A., Bahlburg, D., Bernard, K., Cárdenas, C. A., Grant, S. M., Hill, S. L., Hüppe, L., Ichii, T., Kawaguchi, S., Krafft, B. A., Labrousse, S., Maschette, D., Piñones, A., Reiss, C., Siebenhüner, B., Sylvester, Z., & Ziegler, P. (2025). Adjusting the management of the Antarctic krill fishery to meet the challenges of the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122(37), e2412624122. [Link]
  • Tejedo, P., Benayas, J., Cajiao, D., Leung, Y.-F., De Filippo, D., & Liggett, D. (2022). What are the real environmental impacts of Antarctic tourism? Unveiling their importance through a comprehensive meta-analysis. Journal of Environmental Management, 308, 114634. [Link]
  • Tin, T., Lamers, M., Liggett, D., Maher, P. T., & Hughes, K. A. (2014). Setting the Scene: Human Activities, Environmental Impacts and Governance Arrangements in Antarctica. In T. Tin, D. Liggett, P. T. Maher, & M. Lamers (Eds.), Antarctic Futures (pp. 1–24). Springer Netherlands. [Link]
  • Warwick-Evans, V., Kelly, N., Dalla Rosa, L., Friedlaender, A., Hinke, J. T., Kim, J. H., Kokubun, N., Santora, J. A., Secchi, E. R., Seyboth, E., & Trathan, P. N. (2022). Using seabird and whale distribution models to estimate spatial consumption of krill to inform fishery management. Ecosphere, 13(6), e4083. [Link]

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