The emerging paradigm for Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity is a structure that carries legacies of population persistence in ice-free refugia, and expansion into new habitats following glacial retreat (Jackson et al. 2022 Biology; Ross et al. 2025 Ant Sci). It is also clear that habitat suitability frequently plays a significant role in determining community structure and function in many areas. These communities are connected by dispersal, mediated both by the kinds of organisms involved and the strength of the physical (such as wind) and other factors underlying dispersal.
Understanding the relative importance of these processes is critical for predicting how climate change will impact biodiversity, and the subsequent implementation of management decisions to mitigate those changes (Pertierra et al. 2025 Science). This is particularly important in Antarctica, where the environment is more akin to an archipelago than a continent (Lee et al. 2022 Global Change Biol). Suitable habitats may be separated by vast expanses of inhospitable ice. Moreover, substantial environmental variation characterises distant ice-free areas (Tóth et al. 2025 Sci Data).
Given this environmental variation, a general theoretical framework of ecological processes suggests that the interactions between abiotic filtering, dispersal, adaptation, biotic interactions, and ecological stochasticity (including historical influences) will drive variation in biodiversity responses to change in Antarctica. The primary emerging hypotheses (McGeoch et al. 2025 Nature Rev Biodiv) are:
A. Constrained Hypothesis: Abiotic conditions will likely remain a dominant constraint to fitness, even with warmer, wetter conditions.
B. Dynamic Hypothesis: Species dispersal limits, regional isolation, and topographic and physicochemical variation at multiple scales are expected to continue to delay colonisation of new ice-free areas.
C. Disordered Hypothesis: Specific initial environmental conditions will drive responses, especially after extreme events, leading to unpredictable community responses and little generality for conservation actions.
D. Diversifying Hypothesis: Community diversification could result from range expansion, human-mediated species introductions, local adaptation, and newly expressed microbial functions.
E. Interactive Hypothesis: Increased primary production and biomass, and potentially richer communities will enhance species interactions and terrestrial network complexity.
Clearly, some combination of responses could occur, but the expectation is of a predominant process which would then enable specific projections and conservation actions to be determined.
Such a general framework is timely to tie together the tremendous amount of new biodiversity data that are becoming available (Pertierra et al. 2025 Science; Terauds et al. 2025 Ecology), the new tools from molecular and remote sensing approaches (McGeoch & Gonzalez 2025 Global Change Biol) and the recently improved methods for making projections of change (Zheng et al. 2025 Methods Ecol Evol). It is timely too because of the growing focus on terrestrial biodiversity conservation of the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties (ATCPs) including on the influence of non-native species. Antarctica InSync currently has little specific work on this this critical focal area, or indeed any terrestrial ecology that is at the heart of the Protocol for Environmental Protection. The work thus will make a critical contribution to the major theme of Improving knowledge and protection of the unique Antarctic life: from land to ocean and into the deep sea.
The primary scientific aim is to embed coordinated, standardized biodiversity observations from around the continent to evaluate the relative contributions of niche and neutral processes to Antarctic terrestrial communities, and especially the role of aeolian dispersal, and in so doing provide an explicit framework for better biodiversity projections and actionable conservation interventions, testing the five primary hypotheses listed above.
Doing so as part of Antarctica InSync will deliver the scale and collaboration required to enable a step change in biodiversity forecasting and conservation actions. Doing so now is essential given accelerating change across the continent and the focus by the ATCPs (including via advice from the Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP)) on actions to address the impacts of climate change on terrestrial system.
Two early outcomes will be: 1. the synthesis of microbial metagenomics data, and genomics data on other taxa, across the continent to explore change in community structure and function to test the five primary hypotheses, and 2. the development of a wholly new connectivity map for dispersal by wind across the Antarctic continent.
The five-year workplans of the ATCPs and the CEP, the requirements of the Protocol on Environmental Protection, and the workflows of the Subsidiary Group on Climate Change Response (SGCCR) of the CEP, provide the framework around which to track progress. Most notable are the goals articulated within the Protocol and its terrestrially relevant annexes, and the growing focus of the ATCPs on actions to reduce the impacts of climate change.
For example, the provision of a climate resilient systematic geographic framework for Antarctic Specially Protected Areas, will result in an outcome- and benefit-focused measurement pathway for success. In this respect, readily measurable goals may be the provision of dispersal network strengths for different groups of organisms (e.g., mosses, compared with Collembola) potentially connecting protected areas, and an understanding of likely system change (e.g., photoautotrophic versus chemoautotrophic-dominated systems).
A community of practitioners and a rich new vein of biodiversity data are available to ensure the success of this work. We will develop a coordinated network of participants to advance significantly the ways in which theory-founded biodiversity informatics data can address the environmental protection goals of the Protocol and the ATCPs. Given new data and approaches, along with the current support available to multiple programs enables us to be confident that the scale and focus of the work are adjusted well for the capacity and goals. For example, a focused, collaborative group of microbial ecologists has started drawing together their data and deploying aligned protocols for further exploration of these questions across the continent.
The outcomes are expected to transform understanding of terrestrial biodiversity, and to result in Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Region (ACBR)-specific projections of biodiversity change and actionable conservation interventions using the tools available to the ATCPs via their workflows and the provisions of the Environmental Protocol.
The work across the Antarctica InSync program will then set the stage for further development of this approach with respect to long-term monitoring (as being laid out within the SCAR ANTOS program) and additional deployment as part of the forthcoming International Polar Year.
The work is founded on Vellend’s theory of ecological communities (Vellend 2017 Princeton Univ Press) (Figure 1). The approach combines elements of niche and neutral theory (Latombe et al. 2015 Proc B) to provide a framework for understanding the processes underlying variation in biodiversity. In turn, this understanding, when coupled with specific knowledge of the Antarctic setting, provides a specific set of alternative hypotheses as set out above (Figure 2).
The approach taken will rely on the already available synthesis of biodiversity information (Patterson et al. 2025 Divers Distrib; Pertierra et al. 2025 Science), new developments in understanding dispersal across the continent, and a rapidly developing consortium of microbial ecologists combining metagenomic and community sampling approaches (Fierer et al. 2025 Nature Microbiol).
Figure. 1. An application of Vellend’s (2017 Princeton Univ Press) theory of ecological communities modified for the Antarctic terrestrial setting recognising the significance of isolation and stochastic events through time (McGeoch et al. 2025). The approach provides a theory-founded testable framework for understanding and predicting change in Antarctic systems, applicable from microbial metacommunities to those dominated by invertebrates and plants.
Species Distribution Models (SDM) will be used to forecast the consequences of climate change on species distribution. The difficulty of fitting SDM to marine archipelago data have been well articulated (Rios et al 2024 Global Ecol Conserv); these challenges include small sample sizes with lack of “absence” data, and lack of appropriate predictor variables. We will develop a suite of approaches to take such challenges into account, expanding our method to use new techniques for downscaling, for understanding network change, and for considering multiple species simultaneously.
Our aim is to develop the specifics with groups that have expertise in given taxa. Thus, the approaches required for microbial metacommunity and metagenomics assessments will necessarily be different to those that are applied to other groups such as mosses (Anderson et al. 2025 Ecography) or Collembola.
In the former case, we will coordinate a synchronised, standardised genomics sampling for broadly comparable microbial communities, to remove the need for taxonomic specialists and to facilitate robust like-to-like comparisons, targeting habitats that are replicated across Antarctica, including hypoliths and shallow ponds. To that end we have designed the investigations to have few specialist requirements and to be based on techniques that are already in wide use within the community. The originality of the proposed research is to coordinate sampling and sample analysis across the continent, and to be interpreted in ways that require multi-agency, multi-site data to be effective.
In the latter case, and as an example, the combination of an extensive database of Collembola diversity and an assessment of ecosystems already enables an unparalleled opportunity to visualise and make recommendations for expected changes and required conservation actions (see Figure 3).
Figure 2. The ecological processes (centre) impacted by environmental change (below), and, when dominant, responsible for alternative, potentially co-occurring or sequential Antarctic biodiversity outcomes (top). Links and arrows show the main impacts (drivers) and interactions (processes) leading to particular biodiversity outcomes (from McGeoch et al. 2025 Nature Rev Biodiv).
As a consequence of the work already done to integrate biodiversity data into the GBIF framework (including via Biodiversity.aq), we are in an excellent position to ensure long-term availability and accessibility for further analyses. We have a track record of making available such data and using it effectively (Leihy et al. 2023 Sci Data; Pertierra et al. 2024 Biodiv Data J; Terauds et al. 2025 Ecology).
Within the broader Antarctic community, the work contributes to directly addressing the goals of the SCAR SRPs Ant-ICON (Integrated Science to Inform Antarctic and Southern Ocean Conservation) and the forthcoming C-Cage (Changes in Circumpolar Antarctic Gradients in Ecosystems) which is currently in the Program Planning Stage, with a further contribution to ANTOS (Antarctic Nearshore and Terrestrial Observing System).
Both Ant-ICON and ANTOS have direct aims that link to the evidence requirements that are implicit in the Environmental Protocol and that have been further articulated by the CEP and by the ATCPs, for example, to understand how climate change impacts communities.
With respect to the specifics of the field, laboratory and analytical work, the following synopsis provides an indication of the approaches that will be adopted:
Local conditions. At participating locations, we will aim to collect information on the size of the ice-free area, the distribution and abundance of habitat types, key habitat-specific variables for the sampled habitats, the time since last glacial retreat and local wind climate based on nearby observing systems or suitable models for interpolation. The parameters selected here are available to a wide spectrum of the Antarctic Science community and, in many cases, data already exist or are being collected.
Microbial diversity. The key biological content will be assessment of diversity of microbial taxa within the designated target habitats, which will be chosen on the basis of widespread distribution within Antarctica. The assessment will be based on genomic assessments. New developments mean that it is now possible to sequence almost the entire rRNA operon. For eukaryotes, this is a ~4500 bp region, covering full ITS and most of the 18S and 28S genes (Jamy et al. 2020 Mol Ecol Res) and in bacteria, a 4500 bp long region spanning the full 16S rRNA, ITS and parts of the 23S rRNA can be sequenced (Srinivas et al. 2025 Sci Rep). This will substantially increase the taxonomic resolution compared with the more traditional amplicon sequencing approaches. We will advocate use of consistent extraction techniques, DNA primers, sequencing platforms and bioinformatics pipelines. These techniques are selected as broadly available within the Antarctic research community, and we propose that, to make the data truly coherent, the bioinformatic analysis and assignment of ASVs will be undertaken on a collated dataset of sequences. Metagenomic approaches will complement this approach where applicable (e.g., Ortiz et al. 2021 PNAS).
Figure 3. Habitat mapping for the Collembolan Antarcticinella monoculata and its nearest Antarctic Specially Protected Area based on a combination of biodiversity informatics and ecosystem modelling, with likely representative areas in the closest ASPA. The approach sets up the basic data for the Collembola in the analytical framework presented here (Liu et al. 2025, in review).
Airshed connectivity. We propose to develop a Lagrangian Coherent Structures approach to airshed modelling that will encompass the entire continent. This approach analyses velocity fields to identify “attracting” and “repelling” structures, which can be used to quantify transport patterns not evident in Eulerian velocity fields alone (e.g., Veatch et al. 2025 Comms Earth Environ). The approach will shortcut identification of high probability aerial connection pathways, and a single model can be used by all participants. High Performance Computing will be used to model the air movement at different heights of the Boundary Layer and will simulate the potential transportation of biological particles, depending on size and density.
Data analysis. The environmental metrics will be combined with the airshed connectivity within suitable multivariate models, using Machine Learning Techniques as predictors of both overall diversity metrics (richness, diversity, evenness) but also using multidimensional scaling approaches to address microbial resemblance structures. Data collation and analysis will be shared amongst all participants and will require no specialist tools.
1. Training and science planning workshops (2)
2. A wholly new connectivity model for Antarctic ice-free areas, including the underlying data, code and further development capability information.
3. High-end publications that move forward current biodiversity understanding using new empirical information and new syntheses to test hypotheses geared to improving biodiversity projections.
4. Policy briefs which inform the major biodiversity questions encapsulated by the Environmental Protocol and the five-year workplans of the CEP and ATCPs.
5. Mentorship and capacity building opportunities through peer-to-peer and more formal mentorship programs.
6. Science integration workshops which include capability development.
7. Presentations at international Antarctic and other symposia.
| Timeframe | Task |
|---|---|
The science undertaken through this Working Group will focus on the 2027/28 summer seasons in Antarctica. This allows time to connect with a wide range of contributors and to co-design the data/sample collection program to ensure that the goals of data compatibility and comprehensive coverage can be implemented |
|
| 2026 |
|
| 2027/28 | Research activity including fieldwork, modelling, genome sequencing, data analysis and workshops |
| 2029 | Development of papers, policy briefs for Antarctic Treaty System, and completion of data submission and metadata write-ups. Outputs will be accompanied by media activity by partners |
This WG covers a missing discipline within the Themes of Antarctica InSync: terrestrial biodiversity and the connectivity between terrestrial ecosystems. Connections to other areas are, however, clear, though how these will be developed is a matter for work once all of the WGs formed as part of Antarctica InSync become fully known.
The Working Group includes members that are already collaborating in an interdisciplinary way across SCAR or are involved in productive collaborations with SCAR groups. For example, Steven Chown is Chief Officer of SCAR’s Action Group on Climate, established to provide up-to-date information on climate change and its implications for the Antarctic to the Antarctic Treaty System via the SCAR Standing Group on the Antarctic Treaty System. Jasmine Lee is on the Steering Committee of SCAR’s Ant-ICON Scientific Research Programme and is also a member of the SCAR Standing Committee on the Antarctic Treaty System.
Members also include those contributing to SRPs and planning groups within SCAR. Some members of the consortium are also national representatives at Antarctic Treaty organizations as CEP, ATCM, COMNAP, and the international liaison with policy makers will be greatly facilitated. The WG will seek to harness the full suite of contributions to further build capacity using the available mechanisms and seeking support by encouraging applications to formal opportunities through organisations (such as SCAR fellowships) and countries (such as the Australian observer system to ATCMs and to meetings of CCAMLR).
